NAR Chief Economist Admits Housing Bubble Existed
February 20th, 2008 Deeper Thoughts
Say what?!?!
Check out the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun writing Refueling the Housing Bubble?
I’m hardly able to read the actual article. The title has all the shock value my brain can handle. It’s essentially an admission that all the media spin NAR has done over the last half a decade has been either generally wrong, or outright bogus.
To be blunt – in the middle of a housing bubble is generally a fluffy bunnies horrible time to buy. Not exactly what NAR has said for the last few years.
Ok, ok… summarizing…
Yun basically says everyone is to blame for the bubble. From global capital, to mortgage writers, the flipper industry and homeowner greed. Greenspan and the Fed were a little over zealous in rate cutting. But he then smacks Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s — the rating agencies the hardest.
“If they had properly assessed the risk as is their job, then global capital would have never reached subprime homebuyers and flippers. The housing boom would have stopped dead in its tracks.”
And getting serious honest points and gaining Karma is this admission…
“It is also fine for people to point the finger at me. In a fast changing market conditions, I too have been off on my forecast. I knew that the boom was clearly unsustainable and I made the forecast in early 2007 that home prices were likely to experience a price decline on a national level for the first time since the Great Depression.”
I’ve long thought of the NAR Chief Economist position as nothing but a Vice-Presidency of Pollyana Propaganda.
I’m starting to get some hope from Yun that things are changing.
And as an addition, his post today… Necessary Corrections regarding the home building industry are also worth a read.
“Based on the latest available information, my outlook is for new single-family home construction to decline for another year-and-a-half through the second quarter of 2009.”
Seriously, I’m actually impressed.
April 18th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
[...] The BIG ASS NEWS of the week was Lawrence Yun coming out of a coma and publishing what appears to be objective economic analysis. I covered it with NAR Chief Economist Admits Housing Bubble Existed. [...]